Table 1

Predicted 6 month risk of AIDS according to age, current CD4+ cell count and viral load, based on a Poisson regression model
Viral load (copies/mL)
 Predicted risk (%) at current CD4 count (× 106 cells/L)
Age
 50
 100
 150
 200
 250
 300
 350
 400
 450
 500
25 years









3000
 6.8
 3.7
 2.3
 1.6
 1.1
 0.8
 0.6
 0.5
 0.4
 0.3
10 000
 9.6
 5.3
 3.4
 2.3
 1.6
 1.2
 0.9
 0.7
 0.5
 0.4
30 000
 13.3
 7.4
 4.7
 3.2
 2.2
 1.6
 1.2
 0.9
 0.7
 0.6
100 000
 18.6
 10.6
 6.7
 4.6
 3.2
 2.4
 1.8
 1.4
 1.1
 0.8
300 000
 25.1
 14.5
 9.3
 6.3
 4.5
 3.3
 2.5
 1.9
 1.5
 1.2











35 years









3000
 8.5
 4.7
 3.0
 2.0
 1.4
 1.0
 0.8
 0.6
 0.5
 0.4
10 000
 12.1
 6.7
 4.3
 2.9
 2.0
 1.5
 1.1
 0.9
 0.7
 0.5
30 000
 16.6
 9.3
 5.9
 4.0
 2.8
 2.1
 1.6
 1.2
 0.9
 0.7
100 000
 23.1
 13.2
 8.5
 5.8
 4.1
 3.0
 2.3
 1.7
 1.3
 1.1
300 000
 30.8
 18.0
 11.7
 8.0
 5.7
 4.2
 3.1
 2.4
 1.9
 1.5











45 years









3000
 10.7
 5.9
 3.7
 2.5
 1.8
 1.3
 1.0
 0.7
 0.6
 0.5
10 000
 15.1
 8.5
 5.4
 3.6
 2.6
 1.9
 1.4
 1.1
 0.8
 0.7
30 000
 20.6
 11.7
 7.5
 5.1
 3.6
 2.6
 2.0
 1.5
 1.2
 0.9
100 000
 28.4
 16.5
 10.6
 7.3
 5.2
 3.8
 2.9
 2.2
 1.7
 1.3
300 000
 37.4
 22.4
 14.6
 10.1
 7.2
 5.3
 4.0
 3.1
 2.4
 1.9











55 years









3000
 13.4
 7.5
 4.7
 3.2
 2.3
 1.7
 1.2
 0.9
 0.7
 0.6
10 000
 18.8
 10.7
 6.8
 4.6
 3.3
 2.4
 1.8
 1.4
 1.1
 0.8
30 000
 25.4
 14.6
 9.4
 6.4
 4.6
 3.3
 2.5
 1.9
 1.5
 1.2
100 000
 34.6
 20.5
 13.3
 9.2
 6.5
 4.8
 3.6
 2.8
 2.2
 1.7
300 000
 44.8
 27.5
 18.2
 12.6
 9.1
 6.7
 5.0
 3.9
 3.0
 2.4

<2%, risk 2–9.9%, risk 10–19.9%, risk ≥20%

This table is reproduced from Table 4 in [10]

Langford et al. AIDS Research and Therapy 2007 4:11   doi:10.1186/1742-6405-4-11