Table 1

Predicted 6 month risk of AIDS according to age, current CD4+ cell count and viral load, based on a Poisson regression model

Viral load (copies/mL)

Predicted risk (%) at current CD4 count (× 106 cells/L)


Age

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


25 years

3000

6.8

3.7

2.3

1.6

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

10 000

9.6

5.3

3.4

2.3

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

30 000

13.3

7.4

4.7

3.2

2.2

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

100 000

18.6

10.6

6.7

4.6

3.2

2.4

1.8

1.4

1.1

0.8

300 000

25.1

14.5

9.3

6.3

4.5

3.3

2.5

1.9

1.5

1.2

35 years

3000

8.5

4.7

3.0

2.0

1.4

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.4

10 000

12.1

6.7

4.3

2.9

2.0

1.5

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.5

30 000

16.6

9.3

5.9

4.0

2.8

2.1

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

100 000

23.1

13.2

8.5

5.8

4.1

3.0

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.1

300 000

30.8

18.0

11.7

8.0

5.7

4.2

3.1

2.4

1.9

1.5

45 years

3000

10.7

5.9

3.7

2.5

1.8

1.3

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.5

10 000

15.1

8.5

5.4

3.6

2.6

1.9

1.4

1.1

0.8

0.7

30 000

20.6

11.7

7.5

5.1

3.6

2.6

2.0

1.5

1.2

0.9

100 000

28.4

16.5

10.6

7.3

5.2

3.8

2.9

2.2

1.7

1.3

300 000

37.4

22.4

14.6

10.1

7.2

5.3

4.0

3.1

2.4

1.9

55 years

3000

13.4

7.5

4.7

3.2

2.3

1.7

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

10 000

18.8

10.7

6.8

4.6

3.3

2.4

1.8

1.4

1.1

0.8

30 000

25.4

14.6

9.4

6.4

4.6

3.3

2.5

1.9

1.5

1.2

100 000

34.6

20.5

13.3

9.2

6.5

4.8

3.6

2.8

2.2

1.7

300 000

44.8

27.5

18.2

12.6

9.1

6.7

5.0

3.9

3.0

2.4


<2%, risk 2–9.9%, risk 10–19.9%, risk ≥20%

This table is reproduced from Table 4 in [10]

Langford et al. AIDS Research and Therapy 2007 4:11   doi:10.1186/1742-6405-4-11

Open Data